“It is time to end the vicious cycle of bloodshed, hatred and polarisation.”- Antonio Guterres
What is at stake today is beyond the fate of millions of Palestinians and the survival of Israel itself. It extends to the stability of an entire region and the integrity of the rules-based global order. Should Israel’s relentless offensive in Gaza persist, bolstered by unwavering Western support, it threatens to escalate regional tensions, exacerbating conflicts from Yemen to Iraq and Syria, and potentially catalysing a dangerous surge in global terrorism.
Ignoring a provisional ruling from the International Court of Justice, Israel persists in its assault on the Gaza Strip, where Palestinian health authorities report that over 34,000 Palestinians, predominantly women and children, have lost their lives, with nearly 77,000 sustaining injuries since October 7. The war stands as a primary cause of instability plaguing the middle east and threatens the legitimacy of current world order making it a crucial crisis to be addressed to act towards further escalations.
As Israel continues the genocide, the major powers are being supportive towards the oppressor and the international organizations are chained by Veto powers unable to take actions. But it is time to undertake immediate actions by the international community to help Palestinians restore their faith in the international community and the feasibility of its protection.
At this backdrop, the paper provides an overview of the Israel-Palestine conflict starting from the very beginning in 1799. Thereafter, it will analyze the war using the genesis of the conflict which will help analyze the implications on regional stability and the potential for further escalation, as well as the path ahead emphasizing the involvement of major powers and international organizations.
“Hamas attacks of October 7, did not happen in vacuum. The Palestinian population has endured 56 years of oppressive occupation.” (Al Jazeera, 2024)-Antonio Guterres , UN Secretary General
The complicated history of Israel-Palestine: The genesis
1799-1916: Nepoleon was the first to propose Palestine as a homeland to Jews in 1799 (AL Jazeera, 2024). From the year 1882 began a major Zionist settlement in Palestine. The settling increases as the Zionist British Cabinet member Herbert Samuel drafts a confidential memorandum titled “The Future of Palestine,” urging his Cabinet colleagues to endorse Zionist settlement in Palestine.
1917-1946: The root of the conflict, aka the Balfour Declaration is issued, wherein Britain pledges to establish a “Jewish national home” on Arab land. The League of Nations endorses the British Mandate for Palestine, affirming its objective of facilitating the establishment of a Jewish homeland in 1922 and from 1929 begins the violent protests against the increased Jewish immigration. The armed Zionist organization, Irgun, initiates a string of assaults on Palestinians and in 1946, perpetrates a bombing at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, resulting in the deaths of 91 individuals.
1947-1949: Around 80% of Palestinians in what is now Israel were forcibly displaced, and approximately 80% of Palestinian land was confiscated by Zionist forces in this period. In 1947, The UN adopts Resolution 181, which proposes a partition plan for Palestine. However, Palestinians rejected this plan. Throughout 1948, Zionist groups bombs and kills Palestinians starting with the attack in Village of Qisarya near Haifa also known as “Nakba” (Narea, 2023).
1950-1969: In 1950 Jordan takes over administrative control of the West Bank and the Palestinian liberation Organization is formed in Cairo in 1964. The massacres continue as Israel completes its occupation of the remainder of historic Palestine, which includes the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, along with the Syrian Golan Heights and the Egyptian Sinai.
1968-2014: In 1970, Israel launches attacks on Palestinian fighters during the events known as “Black September” in Jordan. In 2006, A conflict erupts between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. In 2014, Israel initiates its largest assault on Gaza since 1967, named “Operation Protective Edge.”
2015-2024: In 2017, The Trump administration declares Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and announces its intention to relocate the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv, sparking outrage among Palestinians. As the protests continue, Israeli police raid Al-Aqsa Mosque in May 2021. In 2022 Netanyahu sworn for the sixth term. Following a raid by Israeli forces in city of Jenin tit-for-tat attacks flare which takes the biggest turn on October 7th, 2023.
‘Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands, coupled with unwavering Western backing, stands as a primary cause of the instability plaguing the Middle East.’-Hakan Fidan, Turkish Foreign Minister (Yeni Safak, 2024)
Implications of the Conflict on the Middle East’s stability:
Iran-Israel conflict escalates: Hezbollah and Israel had been engaging in cross-border exchanges of fire along the Lebanese-Israeli border for several days, as the foreign minister of Iran warned of taking ‘pre-emptive measures’ against Israel. However, Israel killed a top Iranian general in Syria on 25th December and attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus (AL Jazeera, 2024). All these pushed Iran to take actions against Israel and it did on April 13, by launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel. Till now Israel’s retribution seems small scale and Iran’s response is also limited. (Ostovar, 2024)
Yemen stands with Palestine: The Houthis have targeted ships headed for Israel, leading to US airstrikes in response. Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesman, stated that the seizure of the ship in sed sea was a response to what he described as “heinous acts against our Palestinian brothers in Gaza and the West Bank” (AL Jazeera, 2024). Yemen is a war-torn country itself so wouldn’t have significant roles in the conflict
Egypt concerned about refugees’ influx: Egypt is concerned about potential influxes of refugees from Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula but has stated it will not accept them. It opposes an Israeli ground invasion and advocates for humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Jordan playing safe: Jordan worries about potential spillover violence affecting its ability to manage holy sites in Jerusalem and the West Bank and is acting as an ally for Israel. Jordan is a puppet state and even though a Muslim country it will be staying on Israel’s side.
Lebanon engaged in cross-border firing: Hezbollah’s rhetoric about not planning war with Israel contrasts with its stance as part of the “axis of resistance.” It has warned Israel of potential multi-front conflict and has been engaged in cross-border firing with Israel since the beginning of the conflict along with Iran.
Gulf States as Spectators: Opinions vary within the Gulf Cooperation Council, with UAE siding with Israel, Qatar blaming Israel for violence, and Saudi Arabia urging de-escalation. As the gulf states have a significant dependence on the US and Israel, they will most probably be neutral or be on Israel’s side. If Iran engages in further conflict the gulf countries are going to be benefitted.
“The Palestinian people’s right to establish their own fully independent state must be acknowledged by everyone. Any rejection of the two-state solution by any party should be strongly opposed.”-António Guterres, UN Secretary-General
The road-map for the future of the conflict: the role of major powers and international institutions
Iran-Israel’s war coming out of shadow: Even though the strikes represent a clear attack on Iran’s territory, the Israeli assault seems to have been kept relatively restrained up to this point. Despite Iranian leaders’ vows to retaliate against any aggression on their land, their reaction appears subdued for now. The reports of the bombings being limited in scope initially led to speculation that both parties might be trying to de-escalate their escalating conflict. (Ostovar, 2024). However, this might take the most unexpected turn after the death of Abrahim Raisi or might change the course of direction.
US’s unwavering support for Israel: There is scrutiny over whether US-Israel relation as the genocide by Israel is causing US fallout. The future of US-Israel relations hinges on factors like Israel’s policy, Jewish demographics, and AIPAC’s influence. Despite challenges, and backlash from the citizens and international community there’s limited evidence of a fundamental breakdown in US support for Israel.
Only the Middle East Can Fix the Middle East: The middle east should no longer wait for others and proactively tackle its security issues, suggesting the creation of a security forum led by influential regional players as impartial mediators. Local initiative should be taken and collaboration to resolve persistent conflicts and maintain stability in the region, envisioning a future order less reliant on American involvement. (Kaye & Vakil, 2024)
The ICJ ruling suggests that Israel may be engaged in genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, prompting a legal obligation for other nations to intervene and stop such acts. The rulings of the International Court of Justice on key legal issues such as the status of settlement centers or legal barriers to separation can clarify and guide future negotiations.
Withdrawal of funding to UNRWA by Western nations, based on unsubstantiated allegations, undermines humanitarian efforts and exacerbates the suffering of Palestinians. (Barakat, 2024). The UN secretary general pleads with the countries to take action, however the west are against it. Western states’ support for Israel’s actions risks destabilizing the region and undermining the rules-based world order.
The United Nations can deploy peacekeeping missions to conflict-affected areas, helping to maintain ceasefires and create a secure environment for negotiations to take place. UN mediators can facilitate dialogue between Israeli and Palestinian representatives, using their impartiality and expertise to bridge gaps and find common ground.
Ending the occupation of Palestine is crucial for regional stability and the viability of Israel, requiring international protection and a transition towards Palestinian statehood based on 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Conclusion:
The Israel-Palestine conflict has been going on for centuries with both parties facing hostilities and living in constant fear of attack from the opposition. This is crucial for both parties to come to negotiating terms and end the crisis that has bought nothing but destruction for both the parties. Throughout the years the twists and turns in the conflict has created more hostility among the parties and lessened the possibility of any reconciliation
From the ongoing conflict it is evident that the international organizations are mostly incapable of protecting peace and order as they are highly controlled by the major powers. The major powers hold the power to run these organizations as they please. When in case of Israel the west is unconditionally supporting them and sending Billions of aids, Palestinians are the victims and being starved to death. Even though the UN secretary generals called for immediate ceasefire several times and asked for sending more aids, They have been on standstill by the veto powers. The UN membership of Palestine has been stopped by US even though they have full right to have their own land and sovereignty.
Recommendations:
First, it’s crucial for all nations worldwide to endorse the ICJ’s interim ruling and fully implement its recommendations. This entails halting the violence, releasing captives on both sides, lifting the siege, and ensuring prompt delivery of adequate aid and essential services to all Palestinians in Gaza.
Second, The international community must unequivocally convey to Israel that it cannot violate the territorial integrity of Gaza by occupying any portion of the territory, creating a so-called “buffer zone” within it, or dividing it into smaller settlements.
Lastly, to guarantee that the Palestinian people can lead lives of freedom and dignity under the governance of their democratically elected representatives, the international community should formally recognize a Palestinian state founded on the borders of 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
References:
- AL Jazeera. (2024). How Iran-Israel tensions have escalated since the war on Gaza: A timeline. Al Jazeera.
- Al Jazeera. (2024). What has the UN done and said on the Israel-Palestine conflict? Al Jazeera.
- Barakat, S. (2024). The way forward for Palestine: A call for international protection. Al Jazeera.
- Narea, N. (2023). A timeline of Israel and Palestine’s complicated history. Vox.
- Yeni Safak. (2024). Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands main cause of instability in Middle East, says Turkish FM. Yeni Safak
Written By:
Mirza Moshi
Associate, Foreign Policy Team
Featured Photo Courtesy: newideal. aynrand. org